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SkrapGuy

The Caughlin house property is an interesting conundrum. It is a nice parcel and looks to be a nice house. BUT, it fronts on Mayberry Drive east of McCarran, which is a pretty heavily travelled street, and it is a 1 minute walk to a very busy intersection at Mayberry and McCarran. How many thousands of cars a day go through that intersection?

Do you really think somebody is going to drop $4,000,000 on a "ranch property" where you can listen to the traffic 24 hours a day? I would imagine your comps are from the Juniper Ridge area. Much more quiet, and yet still basically the same distance to all the places you name. I am unaware of any sales in Juniper in the $4 million range for comparable acreage. Would you care to share what you believe are the comparables on this property?

Reno Ignoramus

If you follow the bursting bubble in the nation-wide press, you will see that the national homebuilders are starting to crack. Not collapsing (yet), but starting to crack. And no, it's not different here.
Pulte is dropping its prices all over the country. So is R&B in all its markets. Lennar and Horton are also. Who knows what the hell Toll is doing.

Anybody watching closely can see that the builders are leading the market down. You are correct, how are all the flippers in the Village at Somersett going to compete with Pulte at $122 sq. ft. today and probably $100 sq.ft. come the dead of winter?

This erosion of prices slowly marches forward. We are years away from the bottom.

And Diane, you know I love you. But do you really think you can get somebody to pay $4 million for the Caughlin house property? Do they have a well on that property that produces a 1000 gallons of kool-aid an hour?

Jeff

So, R&B are going to have a sale. I've been hoping to see the prices in the South Meadows decline as they have elsewhere around the city, maybe this is the start of it.

Do you think their "Stagecoach" development will see the kind of discounts that Pulte just gave in Somersett?

2sleepy

"But do you really think you can get somebody to pay $4 million for the Caughlin house property? Do they have a well on that property that produces a 1000 gallons of kool-aid an hour?"

That could be the key to selling it, there are alot of kool-aid drinkers in Caughlin Ranch (as in Jonestown kool-aid)

2sleepy

I think I posted this in the wrong forum- WTB edit/delete capabilities (please)

My comment about Caughlin Ranch was probably too obscure to be understood by very many people; an explanation - people who live in CR seem to 'believe' that a HoA can just spend freely forever, that property values which are declining everywhere else are somehow protected in Caughlin Ranch, that annual dues increases will not ultimately affect their ability to sell their homes, and that you can spend 300,000 + a year watering huge green spaces that benefit about 10% of the homeowners who are actually close enough to enjoy them...It amazes me how people can be so delusional.

Lindie

2sleepy, in or out of Caughlin Ranch, delusion is the primary ingredient maintaining the entire real estate market now.

2sleepy

LOL so true Lindie, I have some neighbors who have had their house on the market for several months, they want to move to So. Cal to be closer to their kids. But they have not even come close to getting an offer. I tried to speak to them honestly today; suggesting that while their house is nice, it is still a 1985 house and it looks like a 1985 house. They are competing with new homes that look like new homes and sell for less than they are asking. They do have great views and the house is well maintained, but again- it is vintage 1985 replete with brass bathroom fixtures and tile counters in the kitchen. I suggested that they lose their bargain basement 'sell it yourself' realtor and call Diane, and invest some $$ in doing some updates. The response "all we need is one offer, we are willing to negotiate"....

I am not sure where the disconnect is with people in this market. I day traded stocks for awhile and did pretty well at it, but one reason I did well is that I knew when to cut my losses, you don't hold on to a tanking stock. Had this couple been realistic about their home when they first listed it 5 months ago I think it would be sold now.

derrick

"you dont hold onto a tanking stock" No kidding you short the hell out of it!! There is money to be made on either side.

derrick

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&s=LEN&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=hov

Not bad, 8% profit in less than a week. Somethings are just right as rain..

Diane Cohn

SkrapGuy: Yes, a conundrum it is. The Caughlin Ranch is an entirely unique property with no real comparable. Believe me, if I could simply point to another property down the street just like it that sold six months ago, life would be easy.

Instead we look at the components. Our baseline is a nearby 1.2 acre horse-friendly lot on Juniper Hill Road that sold last year for $834,000.

So... 3.77 acres x $700,000? $2.6 million. Eight acre feet of water rights x $20,000? $160,000. 7901 square feet of structural space restored to historical standard at a replacement cost of $200 per square foot? $1.6 million. Living in piece of Nevada history surrounded by 30 acres of parkland that will never be developed? Priceless.

Yes, you can hear the street. But once you've been on the property a while, it fades to the background and most people completely forget about it. It's an incredible property.

RI: The Kool-Aid is in the wishing well on the side of the house. But don't tell anyone... ;)

Reno Ignoramus

Diane this is an interesting analysis. It reminds me of that cartoon where an Einstein looking professor has the blackboard covered with algebraic equations and then at the end he inserts "and then a miracle happens."

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